Argentina won the last Copa America staged in Chile and one thinks that is the likely outcome of this year’s edition of the tournament that will kick off in Santiago on Thursday.
Uruguay is the Copa America title holder following its win in Argentina four years ago but the star of that event, Luis Suarez, is suspended after receiving a nine-match ban for biting Italy defender Giorgio Chiellini in the FIFA World Cup. No Suarez means no interest in backing Uruguay.
Anyway, Uruguay is not one of the three Copa America seeds and history suggests that, most of the time, the trophy ends up in the hands of a seeded side – nine of the last 11 Copa America competitions have been won by one of the three seeded teams so shocks are few and far between.
So one is confident that picking the Copa America winner is about working out which one of Chile, Brazil and Argentina is going to emerge triumphant, with one putting a line through Colombia due to it missing out on a seeding.
Copa America host nations do not boast the greatest strike rate so that is one knock against Chile. For the record, home sides have won just three of the last 11 Copa America tournaments and Chile’s placing when it staged the 1991 event was third. Indeed, seven teams have won the Copa America and Chile is not one of them, with its best performances resulting in four second-place finishes.
Chile is one of those sides that most football fans would pay good money to watch but its cavalier approach is not conducive to winning competitions, particularly those in which one has to win three sudden-death matches. Chile does not keep many clean sheets – it has shut out one opponent in its last six competitive games and away teams scored in five of its eight FIFA World Cup qualifying fixtures on Chilean soil – and that is a major negative. Chile punters are, in essence, backing the Copa America host nation to outscore Neymar’s Brazil and/or Lionel Messi’s Argentina. And, of considerable concern to Chile coach Jorge Sampaoli, the goals have dried up in his side’s recent friendly matches.
Brazil drew the short straw and found itself in the same Copa America group as Colombia, the team that bookmakers have marked as the only threat to the three seeded sides. That is a negative and, while Brazil has won each of its nine post-FIFA World Cup friendly games, one does not want to back it at short odds given the results of its last two competitive matches – 0-3 at home to the Netherlands and, of course 1-7 at home to Germany. It is all very well beating the likes of Argentina, Chile and France in friendly games but how will Brazil react when the heat is on and the Copa America is on the line? No-one really knows for sure.
Argentina has to be the Copa America bet at odds of 3.00 with several bookmakers, including Boylesports and WilliamHill. On competitive lines through Germany and the Netherlands, Argentina rates ahead of Brazil and it beat Chile home and away in qualifying for the FIFA World Cup.
Embarrassment of riches is an apt way to describe Argentina and its attacking arsenal – Messi was absent starring for Barcelona in the UEFA Champions League final when Sergio Aguero and Angel di Maria combined to score five goals versus Bolivia, all of them before the half mark.
It is incredible that Messi, who is worthy of being spoken about in the same breath as Diego Maradona and Pele, has not won a senior title with Argentina. Surely that situation is going to change before Messi hangs up his boots – the law of averages says that Messi must win something significant with his country before he retires as one of the true legends.
Tips Summary
Argentina to win Copa America
12th June 00:30 GMT
Odds: 3.00
Where to Bet: Boylesports, WilliamHill
