With the season about to get under-way we are wary of the bad value in backing the favourites. 7/4 is the best price on the favourite Vettel at the moment and we are a little shy about taking it.

Formula One is the world’s favourite motor sport competition and 2013 will be its 64th edition, with Sebastian Vettel attempting to join Michael Schumacher and Juan Manuel Fangio as the only drivers to win the title four years in a row.

Vettel, who has finished first three times and second once in his four full Formula One campaigns, will start the 2013 season as the hot favourite to take out the star prize. The 25-year-old German is trading at odds of around 7-4 to fend off a field that includes five Formula One champions – Fernando Alonso (2005 and 2006), Kimi Raikkonen (2007), Lewis Hamilton (2008), Jenson Button (2009) and Vettel (2010, 2011 and 2012) – and several talented youngsters.

Formula One officials have settled upon a 19-race calendar for 2013, with the series starting in Australia on 17 March and ending in Brazil on 24 November. In changes from 2012, the German Grand Prix moves to the Nurburgring as per its event-sharing agreement with the Hockenheimring. Also, the Spanish Grand Prix switches to the Circuit de Catalunya as per a similar deal with the Valencia Street Circuit, while the European Grand Prix bites the dust after 22 renewals.

One by-product of the calendar changes is that for the first time in many years no country will stage more than one Formula One race, which is in keeping with series supremo Bernie Ecclestone’s vision to make it truly global.

Vettel Opposable In A Close Competition

To back Vettel or not to back Vettel, that is the question. Formula One punters who have had faith in the German since 2010 have won more money than they have lost and there is little doubt that he is entitled to title favouritism.

According to most Formula One watchers, Red Bull is the king of hiding its true speed during pre-season testing and the consensus is that its 2013 car may be the best one on the grid for the Australian Grand Prix in Melbourne. And even if it is not, Red Bull genius Adrian Newey and the development crew that he leads have shown time and time again that they are superb at tweaking their cars during the season itself.

However, odds of around 7-4 (from Intertops) about Vettel joining Schumacher and Fangio in the record books are not exactly generous given that most Formula One analysts are tipping a close championship in 2013, with no fewer than five teams having legitimate claims based on pre-season testing performances.

Alonso’s Car May Not Be The Best

Alonso is, arguably, the most complete Formula One driver on the grid and his Ferrari is both quick and consistent. But the famous marque did not wow any Formula One anoraks during pre-season testing and the 2013 season will probably be a long, hard slog for the Spaniard. The feeling is that Ferrari will not quite be top of the class and Alonso, if he does win his third Formula One title, it will be because he racked up lots of podium finishes and retired rarely.

With Vettel and Alonso accounting for approximately 60 per cent of the 2013 Formula One championship book with most bookmakers, this year’s competition looks like one worth attacking with a speculative outsider at healthy odds.

Look For Value Away From The Favourites

McLaren was the talk of Formula One’s pit lane at the start of the pre-season testing period but that hype has died down somewhat, with eagle-eyed observers reporting that its car still has the inherent understeer that was first sighted this time last year. So, for now at least, Button and his promising teammate, Sergio Perez, are worth swerving.

There is more than a sneaking suspicion that reliability issues may plague Lotus in 2013 just as they did throughout 2012. Lotus completed fewer pre-season testing miles than all their major Formula One rivals except Williams. The noise out of the team is positive but the proof will be in the pudding. A bet on either Lotus driver – Raikkonen or Romain Grosjean – would be a brave one at this stage.

Hamilton Could Do The Unthinkable

A few weeks ago, anyone thinking of backing Hamilton to regain the Formula One crown in his debut season as a Mercedes driver would have been certified insane. Now there is something of a gamble developing on the Briton, with odds of around 10-1 about as big as one can get about him.

Mercedes showed what was, according to Formula One experts, genuine pace in the final pre-season testing sessions, with both Hamilton and Nico Rosberg knocking out quick lap after quick lap. The car looked really good on the track as well.

Not only is Hamilton available at double-figure odds to win his second Formula One title but also he is trading at an attractive 9-4 (Pinnacle) to finish in the top three. One thinks that the Mercedes leader’s podium odds will look very big if the Ferrari of Alonso does not get off to a flying start.

Editor note: After reading this preview you will probably want to look at our F1 betting guide which helps you understand how to apply the information presented above. The guide details how to bet, types of bets, stats and betting sites all from a Formula 1 perspective.

New Zealand and England will play their 33rd Test series against each other in March 2013, with the teams playing matches in Dunedin, Wellington and Auckland from 6 March.

England has dominated the cricket argument that started in 1930. The English edged New Zealand 1-0 in the inaugural four-Test series between the sides and the Kiwis did not enjoy any of the first 20 series, losing 15 and drawing the other five. New Zealand’s first series victory occurred in 1984 when it defeated England 1-0 over three games but, overall, the Kiwis are a long way behind the English.

England has won 45 and lost only eight of its 94 Test matches versus New Zealand, with the series standings favouring the English 22-3 with seven draws. On Kiwi soil, England leads the Test match ledger 18-4 with 22 draws and boasts a series advantage of 10-1 with half a dozen draws.

This year’s three-Test series in New Zealand will mark the first time that the Kiwis and England have competed for the Astle-Atherton Trophy. Astle scored 4,702 Test runs for New Zealand, including the fastest double century in balls faced when he reached 200 off 153 deliveries against the English in Christchurch 11 years ago. Atherton scored 7,728 runs for England and captained his country on a record 54 occasions.

Everyone Panning the Kiwis

Bookmakers are betting that England will warm up for this year’s back-to-back Ashes series with an away defeat of New Zealand. The English are trading at odds of around 2-7 to get the better of the Kiwis over the three Test matches and the tourists are around 8-15 to win the series opener.

So lowly do bookmakers rate New Zealand that the Kiwis are odds against to win one or more of the games in Dunedin, Wellington or Auckland, while the English are trading at odds between 2-1 and 5-2 to complete a road clean sweep.

And bookmakers are not the only group with a low opinion of New Zealand. According to the latest International Cricket Council Test Ranking, the Kiwis are the eighth strongest of the nine listed team on a rating of 78 points. England is ranked second on a rating 40 points higher and fairly safe in that position with Australia struggling in India.

New Zealand’s low ranking is more than justified. The Kiwis have not won a Test series in the land of the long white cloud against a half-decent side – Bangladesh and Zimbabwe do not count – since beating the West Indies seven years ago. New Zealand has lost its last three home series versus Test-quality teams without winning a game and, furthermore, it has won one, drawn eight and lost eight of its last 17 home matches against middleweights and heavyweights since upsetting England in the First Test of 2008. And four of those draws were in games that bad weather ruined.

New Zealand Conditions Similar to England

Coming off an historic victory in India when conditions were not in England’s favour, one would have to fancy the English to prosper in New Zealand versus mediocre opponents in a cricket-playing environment that is similar to Blighty.

England’s bowlers will relish the seam-friendly conditions in New Zealand and one only has to go back a few months to see how the Kiwis fare against high-quality pace men. New Zealand lost both of its New Year away matches versus South Africa by an innings, getting dismissed for 45 runs in its first dig in the First Test, not scoring more than 275 in any of its four knocks and averaging 163 in the series.

Provided that the land of the long white cloud does not rain on England’s parade – precipitation is a possibility in New Zealand at any time of year – the English should have more than sufficient time to hand out a comprehensive beating.

England to Complete Clean Sweep

The best value ante-post bet in the Test series between New Zealand and England is the English to sweep the home side 3-0, an option that has shortened in recent weeks but still trades at odds of around 5-2. The Kiwis do not have enough class batsmen to keep the likes of England and South Africa at bay over five days and the English are in excellent form.

Another tempting bet is a punt on former New Zealand skipper Ross Taylor to score the most runs for the home team. The Kiwis have only one genuine top-drawer batsmen and Taylor is that willow wielder, averaging 41.80 in his 42 Test matches despite being held back by the mediocrity around him. Taylor is the world’s seventh best batsmen, according to the latest ICC Test Championship Batting Ranking, sandwiched between England captain Alistair Cook and Kevin Pietersen. No other New Zealand squad member is listed in the top 30. Taylor is trading at odds of around 3-1 to be the highest scoring Kiwi when one could argue that he should be much closer to 2-1.

Our pundit reckons it is hard to see past defending champions Melbourne Storm to winning the National Rugby League Grand Final. Lucky for us, there are more things to bet on!

Club rugby league competitions do not come any tougher than the National Rugby League and the 2013 edition promises to be every bit as action packed as its recent predecessors.

Sixteen teams – 15 from Australia and one from New Zealand – will compete over 26 rounds for the right to be one of the eight sides to take part in the National Rugby League Finals Series that will culminate with the 2013 National Rugby League Grand Final at ANZ Stadium on Sunday 6 October.

Australians have played rugby league since 1908 but the National Rugby League as it is known today is less than 20 years old. Brisbane won the first National Rugby League Grand Final in 1998, the first of its three National Rugby League titles. The other eight teams on the National Rugby League honour roll are Melbourne (two titles retained and two titles stripped for rule breaches), Manly-Warringah (two titles), Canterbury-Bankstown (one title), Newcastle (one title), Penrith (one title), St George Illawarra (one title), Sydney (one title) and Wests Tigers (one title), with the National Rugby League salary cap going a long way to ensuring that no one side triumphs year after year.

The 2013 National Rugby League season will get under way on Thursday 7 March with a local derby between Sydney and South Sydney at Allianz Stadium. A few years ago, Rabbitohs owner Russell Crowe commissioned a book – the Book of Feuds – to chronicle the rivalry between his team and the Roosters.

Melbourne Ready to Kick Up a Storm

National Rugby League futures punters are spoilt for choice, with a vast array of betting markets available before Sydney and South Sydney kick off the competition. Also, bookmakers will update many of the futures markets after every round.

In terms of picking the winner of the 2013 National Rugby League Grand Final, it is hard to go past Melbourne, the defending champion that recently added this year’s World Club Challenge trophy to its silverware collection. The Storm have the best spine of the National Rugby League sides, with Billy Slater, Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith playing fullback, halfback and hooker respectively. And Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy is the best in the game.

Bellamy has refreshed Melbourne’s squad for 2013, letting go more players than he has recruited but, arguably, improving his team’s roster overall. Brett Finch, Junior Moors and Junior Sa’u are Bellamy specials – value signings who will slot in and do as he tells them. Maybe the Storm have lost a little bit in their forward pack but Bellamy is a master of getting unheralded big blokes to step up a few notches.

Melbourne is a very worthy 2013 National Rugby League Grand Final favourite at odds of around 11-2 because it has the players to get the job done at the business end of the competition when everything is on the line.

Respect Hasler’s Current and Former Sides

Representative call-ups may prevent Melbourne from making the 2013 National Rugby League Finals Series as the first seed, with Slater, Cronk and Smith likely to miss a few matches during the State of Origin period. The sides that appeal as value bets to finish the regular season at the top of the ladder are Canterbury-Bankstown and Manly-Warringah.

Canterbury-Bankstown is likely to get through the lengthy representative season without too many interruptions. A lot will depend upon how the Bulldogs manage the Ben Barba’s tricky situation – they have stood down their free-scoring fullback indefinitely – but one would expect to see them right near the summit after the 26 rounds are over.

Manly-Warringah is the National Rugby League’s forgotten team. Champions two seasons ago and given no chance of retaining their title last term because of a series of injuries to key personnel, the Sea Eagles may be getting a little old in the tooth but they have what it takes to challenge for the star prize for at least one more year.

Bookmakers are offering 2013 National Rugby League minor premiership odds of around 11-2 about Canterbury-Bankstown and 10-1 about Manly-Warringah. The Bulldogs are as short as 7-2 and the Sea Eagles are as low as 13-2. The bookmakers who are trying to duck Des Hasler’s current and former sides are pretty smart. Both of them will be there or thereabouts.

Bulldogs Pivot is Live Dally M Medal Outsider

Betting on the 2013 National Rugby League wooden spoon recipient is too hard – they are at least five strong contenders – but there are excellent opportunities elsewhere, including one at a working man’s price.

The long odds that are worth snapping up are those about Canterbury-Bankstown five-eighth Josh Reynolds winning this season’s Dally M Medal. Reynolds has a fan club among the people who cast Dally M Medal votes, so much that he was joint fifth in last year’s count despite his Bulldogs teammate Barba stealing a lot of votes off him.

Reynolds is as big as 33-1 to succeed Barba as the Dally M Medal winner when, realistically, he should be around the 10-1 mark. If Barba does sit out a large chunk of the 2013 National Rugby League season and Canterbury-Bankstown has another decent campaign then Reynolds, who was level with Melbourne superstar Smith on 20 points last term, could ensure that prize remains within the Bulldogs set-up.

Cooper Cronk is the only one of Melbourne’s big three not to have won a Dally M Medal. Third last year, the Storm halfback is worth a second look at odds of around 9-1.

Sea Eagles to Make the Eight, Broncos to Miss the Eight

Betting on teams to make or miss the National Rugby League Finals Series is a popular pastime and 2013 throws up some interesting bets. Manly-Warringah is trading at odds of around 4-6 to make the top eight for the ninth season in a row, odds that feel a good few rolls over the top. And as far as sides that are more likely to miss the top eight than bookmakers think, Brisbane sticks out at odds of around evens. The Broncos were lucky to finish eighth last term and, if anything, the only way is down for the giants.

For the first time in a very long time, surfing superstar Kelly Slater is not the title favourite going into a World Championship Tour season, the 2013 edition of which will run from March to December with 10 exciting events scheduled.

Slater is surfing royalty. The American won his first World Championship Tour crown in 1992 and two years ago took his number of titles to 11. At the grand old age of 41, Slater looks committed to having a real crack at relieving Joel Parkinson of the prize that the Australian won in 2012.

No man comes close to matching Slater in the world surfing title ranks. Slater’s 11 championships is more than double that of Australian legend Mark Richards (five titles) and no other man else has accrued more than three. Slater could give away the professional surfing game – he does not need the money – so it speaks volumes for his competitive nature and great ability that he still wants to mix it with men, some of whom such as John John Florence are half his age.

For the record, there are four World Championship Tour winners in the running for the 2013 title – Australia’s Mick Fanning (2007 and 2009), the United States of America’s CJ Hobgood (2001), Parkinson (2012) and Slater (1992, 1994, 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2005, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2011).

How The Championship Works

The Quiksilver Pro on Australia’s Gold Coast will be the first event of the 2013 World Championship Tour. Following that will be another famous competition in Australia – the Rip Curl Pro – single events in Brazil, Fiji, France, French Polynesia, Indonesia and Portugal and a couple of dates in the United States of America, including the season-ending Billabong Pipeline Masters at Banzai Pipeline in Hawaii.

There are 10 events on the 2013 World Championship Tour but the competition standings will only include the best eight results of each surfer, thereby making it possible for someone to have a couple of nightmares and still win the title. Joel Parkinson won the 2012 World Championship Tour despite winning only the last of the year’s 10 events. Usually champions win at least three calendar events.

Parkinson Heads The Betting

Bookmakers have chalked odds about both not only the 2013 World Championship Tour but also the opening event, the Quiksilver Pro. Somewhat surprisingly, bookmakers have installed Parkinson as the favourite in both markets.

Parkinson is trading at odds of around 7-2 to become the sixth man to win back-to-back world surfing titles, with the other being Richards (1979 to 1982 inclusive), Tom Carroll (1984 and 1985), Tom Curren (1986 and 1987), Slater (1994 to 1998 inclusive, as well as 2005 and 2006) and the late Andy Irons (2002 to 2004 inclusive). Irons died from cardiac arrest in November 2010 at the young age of 32 years.

According to bookmakers, the 2013 Quiksilver Pro is more open than this year’s World Championship Tour race, with Parkinson trading at odds of around 9-2 and about 10 competitors quoted at odds of around 20-1 or less.

Slater is to Surfing What Taylor is to Darts

When one bets on darts, Phil Taylor is one’s first port of call. One asks oneself whether there is a value argument for backing The Power and goes from there. It is a similar story with surfing. One asks oneself whether there is a value argument for backing Slater and does not even think about anything else until coming up with the correct answer.

Even in his early 40s, Slater is the world’s best surfer on his day and, while Parkinson, Fanning and exciting American grommet Florence have legitimate 2013 World Championship Tour prospects, Slater should be the clear favourite.

Odds of around 6-1 about Slater winning his 12th world title are simply too big to pass. Remember, the veteran American was desperately unlucky not to come out on top in 2012 having won three of the 10 events. Overall, Slater has won 10 World Championship Tour events in the last three years, many more than anyone else. And the legend remains as hungry as ever, otherwise he would have called it a day.

Understandably, bookmakers are taking very few chances with Florence but it does not seem on the money that the star of tomorrow is trading at the same odds as the star of today.

Aussies Dominate Quiksilver Pro Honour Roll

Slater has won three Quiksilver Pro events on Australia’s Gold Coast (2006, 2008 and 2012) but the American is the only non-Australian surfer to win it, with Parkinson (2002 and 2009), Dean Morrison (2003), Michael Lowe (2004), Fanning (2005 and 2007) and Taj Burrow (2010 and 2012) delighting the home crowds at the other renewals.

Burrow has not been out of the top two in any of the last three Quiksilver Pro events in his home country so the West Australian appeals at odds of around 8-1. Alternatively, one could back Parkinson (around 9-2), Fanning (around 6-1) and Burrow (around 8-1) and obtain odds of around 5-4 that one of the heavily fancied home hopes gets the job done.

The Border-Gavaskar Trophy will be up for grabs again when Australia travels to India for a four-Test cricket series running from 22 February 2013 in Chennai to, if the final match in Delhi goes the full distance, 26 March 2013.

The piece of silverware for which Australia and India have competed since 1996 is named after Australia’s Allan Border and India’s Sunil Gavaskar. Border scored 11,174 runs at an average of 50.56 in 156 Test matches for Australia, hitting 27 centuries and a top knock of 205. Gavaskar scored 10,112 runs at an average of 51.12 in 125 Test matches for India, hitting 34 centuries and a top knock of 236 not out. Both men captained their countries and, at some point in their career, held the record for the most Test runs scored.

Below, the unavailing of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy

India won the first Border-Gavaskar Trophy match, beating Australia by seven wickets in what was Sachin Tendulkar’s first Test as skipper. India has held the Border-Gavaskar Trophy more often than Australia but Australia has won more individual games, leading that ledger by 14 victories to 12, helped in no small way by its 4-0 home win in 2011-2012.

Aura Surrounding India Has Gone

Bookmakers have installed India as the favourite not only for the four-Test series but also the First Test in Chennai, with the home team trading at odds of around 4-6 to regain the Border-Gavaskar Trophy and 5-4 to get off to the best start with victory in the city formerly known as Madras.

Betting on Test series played in India used to be what is politely called a no-brainer. After South Africa’s Test series win in India in 2000, India won 15 and drawn five of its next 21 home Test series before going down to England towards the end of last year. The only side that had won a Test series in India in recent memory was the all-conquering Australia team featuring Glenn McGrath and Shane Warne.

But times have changed. Sides used to fear touring India and usually they were happy to return home with some of their pride intact. That is not the case anymore. England fought back from 0-1 down to comprehensively outplay India in the last three Test matches of its 2012 series. The aura surrounding Indian cricket has gone away and, therefore, bookmakers are taking chances in quoting India at short prices to get the better of Australia this year.

Test Records For Each Venue

Chennai’s MA Chidambaram Stadium will stage the First Test between India and Australia, starting on 22 February 2013. India has won 12, drawn six, tied one and lost six of its 30 Test matches at the ground, while Australia’s record reads one win, two draws, one tie and two losses. The tie occurred in 1986 when Australia set a target of 348 runs for India to win and the home team fell one run short, Greg Matthews trapping Mahinder Smith leg before wicket for a duck.

Hyderabad’s Rajiv Gandhi International Stadium is a fairly new Test venue, with India having won one and drawn the other of its two matches there, both versus New Zealand. Therefore, punters betting on the Second Test, scheduled to begin on 2 March 2013, will have to do some guessing work.

Mohali’s Punjab Cricket Association Stadium will be where the Third Test will take place from 14 March onwards. India has played 10 Test matches at the ground, resulting in four wins, five draws and one loss. Australia has lost both of its Test matches at the venue, although recent statistics suggest that the pitch is likely to be less spin-friendly than some of the others that the away side will encounter.

The Fourth Test is set down for Delhi’s Feroz Shah Kotla Stadium, with the action programmed to get under way on 22 March 2013. India knows the ground like the back of its hand having played 31 Test matches there but it has registered just 11 wins, with 14 draws and six losses. Australia’s numbers stand at one win, three draws and two losses.

Clarke To Star For Australia

Even allowing for India’s home advantage, which is not inconsiderable, the favourite is under the odds to beat an Australia team that one must not forget won the reverse Test series 4-0 little more than 12 months ago. Put aside one’s concerns about Australia’s inexperienced batting line-up and maligned spin bowlers and take the odds-against price about Michael Clarke’s side either winning or drawing the series.

Speaking of Clarke, the Australia captain is a phenomenally good player of spin bowling so back the man known as Pup to be the away team’s top scorer across the four Test matches at odds of around 9-4. Clarke is the only Australia or India batsman ranked in the world’s top 19 currently. Next best is Tendulkar in 20th position and the second highest ranked of Clarke’s compatriots is David Warner down in 25th place.

Bad Batting Should Equal Positive Results

Neither India nor Australia appears to have a killer batting line-up – the world rankings speak for themselves and are pretty condemning – so be mindful of backing the draw in any of the four Test matches. Indian punters love to back the draw so often it trades well below its true level. There are more grounds for expecting positive results than stalemates.

The 2013 World Club Challenge will be the 14th consecutive annual match between the kings of the world’s top two club rugby league competitions, with Super League title winner Leeds hosting National Rugby League champion Melbourne.

All of the last 13 World Club Challenge games have taken place in the United Kingdom and many of them have occurred after that year’s Super League season kicked off but before the start of the National Rugby League equivalent.

That goes a long way to explaining why Super League teams have won eight of the last 13 World Club Challenge matches even though no impartial rugby league fan would claim that the Europe-based competition is superior to the one played out in Australia and New Zealand. The gap may have closed substantially in recent years but a gap remains. For the record, since 2000, Bradford (three times), Leeds (three times) and St Helens (twice) have won the World Club Challenge for the Super League, with Melbourne (twice), Manly (once), St George Illawarra (once) and Sydney (once) doing the National Rugby League proud on foreign soil.

Visitors Firming As Favourites

Some bookmakers have been betting on the 2013 World Club Challenge ever since rugby league officials confirmed that Leeds and Melbourne would go to war in the Yorkshire city and, slowly but surely, the Storm have firmed as the favourites for the Headingley Carnegie Stadium match.

Generally available at odds of around 8-11 at the beginning of the year, one will be hard pushed to get better than 4-7 about Melbourne defeating Leeds for the second time in four years now. The Storm beat the Rhinos 18-10 in 2010 but rugby league chiefs stripped them of that World Club Challenge title as a result of their serious salary cap breaches.

Redemption is a powerful motivator for Melbourne and its outstanding coach, Craig Bellamy. As far as rugby league administrators are concerned, the Storm did not win three National Rugby League minor premierships, two National Rugby League Grand Finals and one World Club Challenge between 2006 and 2010. Everyone associated with Melbourne views it differently and is 100 per cent committed to proving that it can triumph over adversity. Overcoming Canterbury Bankstown 14-4 in last season’s National Rugby League Grand Final was the first step on the Storm’s road to recovery. Beating Leeds in this year’s World Club Challenge is the second.

Storm Superstars To Put Boot Into Sinfield

Another factor driving Melbourne’s will to win the 2013 World Club Challenge is the result of the 2012 Golden Boot poll that saw the Rugby League World-backed award go to Leeds skipper Kevin Sinfield. No-one is saying that the Rhinos captain is not a fine player and he has played a pivotal role in all of his side’s six Super League Grand Final victories since 2004 but he is not the world’s best. There are not one or two but three Storm players who would have been more deserving recipients of the prize.

Indeed, Melbourne superstars Billy Slater, Cameron Smith and Cooper Cronk are all in the top 10 in the first 2013 Golden Boot betting market, trading at odds of 4-1, 9-2 and 12-1 respectively. Sinfield is a 25-1 chance and not value at that price. One could put a zero on the end of the Leeds forward’s odds and still find incredibly few takers.

Brilliant Bellamy is Melbourne Mastermind

But, above all other things, the major reason why Melbourne is worth backing to overcome Leeds in the 2013 World Club Challenge is this: the Storm are a bloody brilliant team managed by one of rugby league’s sharpest minds ever.

The three most important positions in any rugby league side are fullback, halfback and hooker. Melbourne has the world’s best fullback in Slater, the world’s best hooker in Smith and one of the world’s halfbacks in Cronk. Slater is a once-in-a-lifetime fullback, a freak of a runner towards whom several teams have decided to stop kicking the ball, choosing to put it out of play. Like Slater, star hooker Smith could be the finest player in his position ever. And Cronk is a halfback who invariably makes the right calls.

Melbourne coach Bellamy is terrific at finding 14 players, at the right price, to play alongside the magicians called Slater, Smith and Cronk. And Bellamy’s recruitment going into the 2013 season appears, once again, to be really, really clever. Bellamy has recruited Brett Finch, most likely for peanuts, because the larrikin playmaker loves the Storm culture and he really, really, really wants to win a National Rugby League premiership. And Bellamy’s capture of Junior Moors from Wests Tigers is smart if one digs deep into last term’s statistics. Of all the National Rugby League’s front-row forwards, Moors was ranked fourth for effective tackles with a 94.1 per cent success rate. And Moors would not have astronomical wage demands, either.

Storm To Win and Cover Spread

Melbourne will be up for the 2013 World Club Challenge and, if the Storm plays to even just 90% of its potential, the National Rugby League side will take a lot of holding.

Forget that the Super League teams have won more World Club Challenge games than their National Rugby League opponents in recent years. Some of the visiting sides have not taken the match all that seriously and suffered the consequences on the scoreboard. Melbourne will not have a poor attitude and it could be the most motivated away team in ages.

If win odds of 4-7 do not float your boat, back Melbourne to cover the handicap – there are 2.5-point and 3.5-point lines out there at close to even money – and/or the Storm to win by 1-12 points at odds of around 13-8. Five of the last six World Club Challenge games have been won by that margin.

Finding false favourites is the key to successful betting and there is one in the third week of the Premier League Darts when two of the sport’s biggest names go head to head at the Bournemouth International Centre.

The all-Netherlands match between Raymond van Barneveld and Michael van Gerwen tops the bill on England’s south coast, with the game see the Dutch master going up against his compatriot apprentice over the best of 12 legs. Neither van Barneveld nor van Gerwen has lost in this year’s Premier League Darts, with van Barneveld on two wins and van Gerwen on two draws ahead of their 21 February 2013 blockbuster.

Bookmakers have installed van Gerwen, the 23-year-old from Boxtel who burst on to the world darts scene at the tender age of 17, as the match favourite at odds of around 13-10, with van Barneveld and the draw trading at odds of around 6-4 and 7-2 respectively. It is going to be a great game.

Van Gerwen will have his supporters at his favourite odds but the value lies in backing van Barneveld for any number of reasons, including recent form and head-to-head data.

Let us start with the recent form. Both van Barneveld and van Gerwen ran into the unstoppable juggernaut that is Phil Taylor in the 2013 World Darts Championship, with the old stager losing 4-6 in the semi-finals and the young upstart going down 4-7 in the final. What is interesting is that van Barneveld ended the tournament with the best average (99.29 per three darts) ahead of van Gerwen (98.83), Kim Huybrechts (98.79), Terry Jenkins (97.63) and Taylor (97.46).

And in this year’s Premier League Darts competition, van Barneveld has averaged 100.19 and 102.02 in his two wins, whereas van Gerwen’s averages in his two draws have been 97.93 and 98.28. Admittedly, there is little to choose between the Dutchmen on all of those statistics but van Barneveld has whatever numerical edge does exist.

The head-to-head data between van Barneveld and van Gerwen is more compelling. It appears that the Dutchmen have met a dozen times in professional events, with van Barneveld well out in front on nine victories to van Gerwen’s three. Now one may expect van Barneveld to lead van Gerwen because of their relative levels of experience. But what is amazing is the dominance of van Barneveld in his most recent matches versus his countryman with the darts world at his feet.

Van Barneveld has won each of his last eight games against van Gerwen, with three of those matches taking place in the last two years. One has to go back to January 2007 for the last time that van Barneveld lost to van Gerwen and it is not outrageous to suggest that the 45-year-old from The Hague has a psychological edge over his youthful rival.

One has to remember that van Gerwen grew up watching van Barneveld winning world championships and that he may have an inferiority complex when it comes to playing the man who has done more than anyone to grow the sport of darts in the Netherlands. Everyone has their heroes and van Barneveld was and probably still is one of van Gerwen’s greatest idols.

The last three games between van Barneveld and van Gerwen have been relatively close – 8-5, 10-9 and 16-14 – so there may be more value to be sucked out of their Premier League Darts encounter than supporting the veteran at 6-4. Several bookmakers are quoting prices about the score, with van Barneveld 7-5 at odds of around 13-2, van Barneveld 7-4 at odds of around 10-1 and van Barneveld 7-3 at odds of around 10-1 also. Backing van Barneveld to win either 7-5 or 7-4 works out at just under 7-2, while throwing in 7-3 as well reduces the potential odds to just under 11-5. The smartest score play looks like van Barneveld by two or three legs.

With more than 50 betting markets on most Premier League Darts matches, punters who love their arrows are spoilt for choice. Continuing with the van Barneveld love fest, there are lines about his average versus van Gerwen, with the common over/under point being 98.5. Playing van Gerwen appears to bring out the best in van Barneveld so the sensible play is a bet on him averaging more than 98.5, something that he has done in two of his last three wins over his compatriot. The line is just a little too low.

The other headline game in the third week of 2013 Premier League Darts action is Taylor’s match against Australia’s Simon Whitlock. The Wizard of Oz is trading at odds of around 5-1 to inflict a rare defeat on the Power. Taylor has won 31 of his 36 professional games versus Whitlock.

Opinion is divided as to whether Real Madrid or Manchester United is the favourite to qualify for the quarter-finals of this season’s UEFA Champions League following the 1-1 draw between the European heavyweights in Spain last week.

Many pundits, including BBC’s Robbie Savage and ESPN’s Robbie Earle, believe that Manchester United is in the driving seat after the first leg in which Danny Welbeck headed the Red Devils in front and Cristiano Ronaldo equalised for Real Madrid with an incredible header, seemingly hovering above Patrice Evra for an age.

Bookmakers, however, are sticking solid with Real Madrid, albeit by the finest of margins in some instances. The Meringues are odds on across the board to make the last eight of European club football’s top tournament, with Manchester United trading at odds of around 11-10.

One group that is no doubt as to which team is on top going into next month’s second leg at Old Trafford is Infostrada, now called Gracenote,, whose statistical nerds have spent too much time with their heads in the history books of European club competitions.

If history is any guide – and the data that Infostrada has analysed includes more than 50 years of ties in the various European tournaments so it should be meaningful – Manchester United ought to be very short odds to eliminate Real Madrid.

Historically, 75.8 per cent of sides that have drawn the first leg of a European club knockout tie away from home by a 1-1 scoreline have ended up triumphant. So, according to the history books that Infostrada have dusted off and gone through with a calculator, Manchester United should be trading at odds of around 1-3 to oust Real Madrid.

Interestingly, Manchester United versus Real Madrid is the only one of the four UEFA Champions League last-16 ties that got under way last week in which the current qualification odds of bookmakers differ much from the historical data.

Juventus beat Celtic 3-0 in Glasgow and the Italian Serie A table topper is trading at odds of around 1-500 to eliminate its Scottish opponent. According to the historical data, Juventus is a 99.4% chance to make the next round.

David Beckham’s latest employer, Paris Saint-Germain, upset Valencia 2-1 in Spain, a result that saw bookmakers slash their odds about the French Ligue Un frontrunner qualifying for this term’s UEFA Champions League quarter-finals. PSG is trading at odds of around 1-8 to knock out its Spanish adversary and the historical data suggests that it is a 96.0% chance of reaching the competition’s last eight.

And Borussia Dortmund, the German Bundesliga giant that forced a 2-2 away draw versus Shakhtar Donetsk, is trading at odds of around 2-9 to progress. The historical data suggests that Dortmund is an 82.2% chance to go through.

The historical data suggests that Manchester United is a value bet at 11-10 to knock out Real Madrid. But are there other interesting wagers pertaining to the tie of the UEFA Champions League round that are worth striking? The answer is yes because of how the second leg is likely to pan out.

Real Madrid has to score at least one goal at Old Trafford if it wants to keep alive its UEFA Champions League dream so Meringues boss Jose Mourinho will be hoping that Manchester United play the role expected of a home side, attack from the opening whistle and commit numbers ahead of the ball.

So What Does This Mean For The Utd vs. Madrid Game

Manchester United manager Alex Ferguson is not the sharpest tactician in the world game – his successes have been the product of his brilliant man-management skills – but even Fergie knows that the Red Devils should play conservative football if they want to eliminate Real Madrid. The Scot got Manchester United’s tactics absolutely spot on in the first leg, instructing Phil Jones to harass Ronaldo and getting good value from Wayne Rooney and Welbeck in wide midfield positions. One would be shocked if the Red Devils deviate too far from its Madrid plan that worked pretty well.

Therefore, it is worth checking out the odds available about a low-scoring first half at Old Trafford. Manchester United would be happy if the half-time score was 0-0 because it would put the pressure on Real Madrid to come out and play like a de facto home team after the break. The bottom line is that both the Red Devils and the Meringues are at their best when they are able to counter attack. So a goalless first half could lead to a goal-packed second half.

One can get odds of around 27-10 that neither Manchester United nor Real Madrid scores in the first 45 minutes at Old Trafford and odds of around 11-10 that the second half at the self-styled Theatre of Dreams features more goals than the first one. Both bets appeal given the state of the tie.

Val di Fiemme fended off competition from Falun in Sweden, Lahti in Finland, Oberstdorf in Germany and Zakopane in Poland to get the nod from the International Ski Federation to host the 2013 Nordic World Ski Championships. Val di Fiemme hosted the 1991 and 2003 editions of the event.

As one would expect given their name, the Nordic World Ski Championships have been dominated by Norway, Finland and Sweden. The Norwegians top the all-time Nordic World Ski Championships medal table with 107 gold, 89 silver and 89 bronze. The Finns are second on 62 gold, 69 silver and 62 bronze, while the Swedes are third on 41 gold, 33 silver and 40 bronze. All up, Norway, Finland and Sweden have won 56.2% of the Nordic World Ski Championships gold medals and 52.8% of the Nordic World Ski Championships medals of any colour.

A record-breaking 23 events are on the 2013 Nordic World Ski Championships program, so it is time to pick out what look like the best bets across the dozen days of competition.

Kowalczyk In Pole Position

Justyna Kowalczyk is going to take a lot of beating in the women’s individual cross country races. The 30-year-old Pole leads this season’s overall World Cup standings by a wide margin, topping the distance ladder and occupying second position in the sprint standings. Not only that but the two-time world champion has an impressive Val di Fiemme record, winning the 10-kilometre classic mass start competitions there in each of the last three years.

Interestingly, most bookmakers trading early 2013 Nordic World Ski Championships markets are favouring Norway’s Therese Johaug over Kowalczyk so the Pole represents excellent value. Johaug is ranked second this term. (Prices are from Bet365.com).

Petter Northug is a warm favourite for many of the 2013 Nordic World Ski Championships men’s individual cross country contests but there appears to be some value in backing this season’s World Cup leader, Dario Cologna, to upset the Norwegian. The Swiss heads both the distance and overall World Cup competitions and he has raced well in Val di Fiemme recently, placing third in the 20-kilometre mass start race in 2012 and second 12 months earlier than that.

Franco-American Is Nordic Combined Man To Beat

Eric Frenzel and Jason Lamy Chappuis won the 2011 Nordic World Ski Championships men’s individual Nordic combined gold medals and the German and the Frenchman are first and second respectively in this term’s World Cup competition.

Lamy Chappuis has the superior Val di Fiemme form – the United States of America-born 26-year-old won an event at the Italian venue last year – so he is the man to beat.

Of the longer priced competitors, Mikko Kokslien could be worth a nibble at big odds. The Norwegian is seventh in this season’s World Cup rankings but he was on the podium in both of the World Cup contests staged at Val di Fiemme in 2012.

With Germans filling four of the top 12 positions in this term’s World Cup standings, Germany is the obvious pick to take out the men’s team competitions. In addition to Frenzel (first), Tino Edelmann (sixth), Bjoern Kircheisen (eighth) and Johannes Rydzek (12th) are flying high this season.

Schlierenzauer And Takanashi Worthy Favourites

It is difficult to look past Gregor Schlierenzauer for the probable winner of the 2013 Nordic World Ski Championships men’s ski jumping gold medals. The Austrian has won five titles since making his debut at the 2007 edition in Sapporo and he leads this term’s World Cup competition as a result of his Four Hills Tournament performances. Schlierenzauer placed first in Bischofshofen and Innsbruck and second in Garmisch-Partenkirchen and Oberstdorf to overhaul Anders Jacobsen and run out a convincing champion. A man for the big occasion, Schlierenzauer had won the 2011-2012 Four Hills Tournament in equally impressive fashion.

Women’s ski jumping is a relatively recent addition to the Nordic World Ski Championships schedule, debuting in 2009 when Lindsey Van won the women’s individual normal hill title. Daniela Iraschko is the defending champion but it would be a surprise if anyone beat Sara Takanashi, Japan’s teenage ski jumping phenomenon. The 16-year-old has won this season’s World Cup title – she is so far in front that he cannot be caught – and she knows how to handle the pressure associated with a major event, striking gold at the Innsbruck 2012 Winter Youth Olympic Games.

With the International Olympic Committee voting to drop the sport of wrestling from the 2020 Olympic Games, now is time to turn the spotlight on the race to host that event.

What began as a five-city contest has been reduced to one between three cities, with Baku in Azerbaijan and Doha in Qatar failing to make the first cut, leaving Istanbul in Turkey, Tokyo in Japan and Madrid in Spain to compete for votes ahead of the 125th International Olympic Committee Session that will take place in early September 2013.

Believe it or not, there are two websites devoted to news pertaining to the Olympic movement and both of them – Around The Rings and GamesBids – boast indices that rate the worth of bids for summer and winter editions of the Games.

Based in Atlanta, the United States of America city that hosted the 1996 Olympic Games, Around The Rings has been reporting on the International Olympic Committee for more than 20 years, with its 2020 Power Index rating the bids of Istanbul, Tokyo and Madrid across 11 categories, nine of which are worth a maximum of 10 points and two – ambience and last Games hosted – are worth a maximum of five points.

According to Around The Rings analysts, Tokyo is the 2020 Olympic Games frontrunner, scoring 77 points of a possible 100 in January 2013’s edition of the Power Index. Istanbul and Madrid both scored 73 points, although one should note that it was the Turkish bid that made the biggest gain.

Around The Rings assesses bids almost exclusively on their technical merits, with its 11 categories being ambience, accommodation, bid operation, finance, last Games, legacy, marketing, public support, security, transportation and venue plans. Naturally, bad technical bids do not win Olympic Games hosting rights but there is more to the process than simply having the best technical bid.

GamesBids, the brainchild of Canadian journalist Robert Livingstone, has been publishing Olympics news since 1998 and prides itself on the accuracy of its BidIndex, which is not intended to rate bids solely on their technical quality but on how they will perform based on International Olympic Committee voting patterns. According to GamesBids, history has shown that the best technical bids often do not win but other factors such as geopolitics usually have a big impact.

According to the latest BidIndex published on the GamesBids website, Istanbul leads the 2020 Olympic Games race on a score of 60.20 from Tokyo (59.92) and Madrid (55.10). Now, one should note that the latest BidIndex is nine months old but, if anything, the case for the Turkish bid has improved since May 2012 following the announcement of UEFA that the Euro 2020 football tournament will be staged in 13 cities across the Europe rather than in one nation such as Turkey.

The BidIndex picked the winners of the races to host the 2016 Olympic Games (Rio de Janeiro in Brazil) and 2018 Olympic Games (Pyeongchang in South Korea) so it has excellent recent form in the book. All that is missing is a recent update, something that cannot be all that far away.

But one should not wait for GamesBid to crunch the numbers for the second time. There is a clear value case for backing Istanbul at odds of around 11-5. Madrid is too short at odds of around 11-2 – the Barcelona 1992 Olympic Games is a major negative against the Spanish bid, as is the poor state of Spain’s economy – and Tokyo is too short at odds on when Turkey’s largest city offers the chance to bring the world’s biggest sports event to a secular Muslim country for the first time, something that is central to Istanbul’s pitch.

Next month, the International Olympic Committee Evaluation Commission will visit Tokyo, Madrid and Istanbul in that order, spending four days in each of the cities. July will see the candidates brief International Olympic Committee members in Lausanne, with the vote occurring in the Argentine city of Buenos Aires on 7 September.