Alpine World Ski Championships Betting

ski logoSchladming will host the 42nd edition of the Alpine World Ski Championships, marking the second time that the town will stage the event and the ninth time that the alpine skiing-crazy nation of Austria will have the honour.

Austrian superstar Harti Weirather won the blue-riband event of the 1982 Alpine World Ski Championships in Schladming, taking out the men’s downhill by just under half a second from Switzerland’s Conradin Cathomen. Klaus Kroell, Hannes Reichelt and Max Franz are Austria’s strongest chances of a home win in the most prestigious race on the 2013 program.

Austria is far and away the most successful country in the history of the Alpine World Ski Championships, winning 71 gold medals, 73 silver medals and 66 bronze medals for a total of 210 medals. Next best is Switzerland on 50 gold, 56 silver and 47 bronze for a total of 153. All up, 22 nations have won at least one medal dating back to the inaugural competition held in Murren in Switzerland 82 years ago.

With five gold medals, four silver medals and three bronze medals, Norway’s Kjetil Andre Aamodt heads the men’s Alpine World Ski Championships medal table. Germany’s Christl Cranz top the women’s standings with 12 gold and three silver.

Since 1995, the Alpine World Ski Championships have been organised in odd-numbered years so as not to clash with Winter Olympic Games. And looking ahead, the International Ski Federation has awarded the 2015 Alpine World Ski Championships and 2017 Alpine World Ski Championships to Vail/Beaver Creek and St Moritz respectively.

Turning one’s attention back to the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships, there are 11 events scheduled – downhill, giant slalom, slalom, super combined and super G races for both men and women, plus a mixed team competition.

Svindal too short for men’s downhill

Aksel Lund Svindal is the clear favourite to win the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships men’s downhill gold medal, probably because he won the 2007 title in Are and was the dominant racer in the last event staged on the slopes of Schladming. The Norwegian won last year’s World Cup men’s downhill in Schladming by 0.57 seconds from a top field.

However, Svindal trails Dominik Paris in this term’s World Cup men’s downhill standings, finished fifth in the 2011 Alpine World Ski Championships men’s downhill and was the silver medallist behind Didier Defago in the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games men’s downhill. The Norwegian is a fine racer worthy of respect in any speed event but he is more of a super G specialist and worth opposing at his short odds.

Paris and Reichelt are the best value bets against Svindal, with the Italian trading at odds of around 12-1 and the Austrian available at around 11-1. Rising star Paris leads this season’s World Cup men’s downhill competition by three points and he was second fastest in training for the last men’s downhill event in Schladming before producing a poor run in the race itself. Ranked sixth in this term’s World Cup men’s downhill, Reichelt was third in Schladming 11 months ago and he is in the high-speed form of his life.

Vonn worthy women’s downhill favourite

The women’s downhill does not have the profile of the men’s downhill but it will be one of the highlights of the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships, with United States of America’s Lindsey Vonn dominating the betting market.

alpine skiing championship

Fast and furious, the Alpine Ski World Championship is the premier event on the skiing calendar

Whereas one can make a case for opposing Svindal in the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships men’s downhill, one cannot knock the gold medal credentials of Vonn in the women’s equivalent even though she is odds on in some places.

Vonn has won five consecutive World Cup women’s downhill titles and leads this season’s series by a whopping 129 points. The American has 61.13 per cent more points than Stacey Cook, her compatriot in second spot on 211. Also, Vonn took out the 2009 Alpine World Ski Championship women’s downhill in Val d’Isere and the Vancouver 2010 Olympic Games women’s downhill. The 28-year-old phenomenon missed out on 2011 Alpine World Ski Championship women’s downhill gold in Garmisch-Partenkirchen but only just, collecting silver.

The winner of three of this term’s five World Cup women’s downhill races, Vonn is more than entitled to be odds-on status so grab the evens available with some bookmakers.

Oppose Hirscher in men’s slalom

Of the other nine events on the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships program, the one that presents the most interesting betting opportunity is the men’s slalom.

As the most technical alpine skiing discipline, slalom lends itself to opposing a favourite as short as Marcel Hirscher at odds of around 5-4. The Austrian youngster leads this term’s World Cup men’s slalom standings but he flopped in Schladming last year and asks for punters to oppose him.

Felix Neureuther and Andre Myhrer are the 2013 Alpine World Ski Championships men’s slalom second and third favourites respectively and they filled the first two positions in Schladming in 2011. One can back the German at odds of around 5-1 and the Swede at around 17-2. Dutching them provides odds in excess of 13-5, which makes considerably more sense than backing Hirscher alone at a shorter price.

Djokovic Could Slam his Grand Rivals

It is tradition that no sooner is the Australian Open over that tennis pundits discuss the possibility of a man and/or a woman completing a calendar Grand Slam of singles titles.

Bookmakers love to get in the act as well so it should come as no surprise to read that there are several markets out there regarding the number of Grand Slam singles titles that Novak Djokovic and Victoria Azarenka each win in 2013.

Two Grand Slam singles titles this year is the Djokovic favourites at odds of around 5-4, while one Grand Slam singles title is the Azarenka favourite, odds on in many places but a shade of odds against with one bold firm.

No men’s singles player has completed a calendar Grand Slam since Rod Laver in 1969. Indeed, no men’s singles player since Rocket has held all four major titles – Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon and US Open – concurrently, which goes to show the odds that Djokovic has to beat in order to achieve a feat that proved beyond, among others, modern greats Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Pete Sampras.

Federer has won three of the four Grand Slam men’s singles titles in the same year three times – 2004, 2006 and 2007 – Nadal won everything in 2010 except the Australian Open and Djokovic’s only 2011 failure came in the French Open.

No women’s singles player has completed a calendar Grand Slam since Steffi Graf in 1998. The feat proved too tough for Martina Navratilova, although she did win six major titles in a row from Wimbledon in 1983 to the US Open in 1984. And Serena Williams pulled off the Serena Slam from the French Open in 2002 to the Australian Open in 2003.

Azarenka made the most of her luck to win the Australian Open for the second year in a row, capitalising on the unexpected exits of Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams – the former was brought down by a bad performance, whereas the latter came unstuck because of a bad ankle.

djokovic azarenka

Will either of these two tennis stars be able to complete an unlikely Grand Slam in 2013?

Bookmakers are not giving anything away even with their 50-1 quotes about Azarenka completing the calendar Grand Slam in 2013. The Belarusian has not made it past the French Open quarter-finals in seven Roland Garros appearances and she has yet to take part in a Wimbledon championship match.

If Serena Williams can get and stay fit for the six weeks of the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open, one would have to say that Azarenka will struggle to win another major title this year. Remember the head-to-head between the American and the Belarusian stands at 11-1 in favour of the former.

Basically, anyone who backs Azarenka to add to her 2013 Grand Slam women’s singles title tally is betting that Serena Williams will break down again because, on the American’s day, she is very close to unbeatable.

So what about Djokovic’s chances of becoming only the third men’s singles player after Don Budge (1938) and Laver (1962 and 1969) to complete calendar Grand Slam? Bookmakers are quoting four titles for the Serbian at odds as low as 8-1 and as high as 16-1. The 16-1 odds are fair enough based on the French Open, Wimbledon and US Open markets that have Djokovic at 7-4, 9-4 and 15-8 respectively. The multiple works out at about 25-1 but one has to account for the shrinkage to the Serbian’s Wimbledon odds if he wins the French Open and his US Open odds if he arrives in New York having gone three from three between January and July.

With Nadal scheduled to play his first tournament in seven months next week, there could be some major changes to the ante-post Grand Slam men’s singles markets in the coming days, particularly if the Spaniard either breaks down or does not look a patch on his old self. Nadal has been so hard on his body throughout his career that one would not collapse in shock if he did not regain full fitness ever again. If Nadal is not 100 per cent, Djokovic could put himself alongside Budge and Laver in the history books.

The French Open shapes as a battle between Djokovic and Nadal. Andy Murray and Federer will be Wimbledon threats, although one cannot underestimate the amount of pressure that will be on the Briton’s shoulders and the Swiss is yesterday’s man. The US Open will be competitive but it takes place on the Serbian’s favourite surface, hard.

Grand Slam bets, whether they are in tennis or golf, have had a reputation of being for mug punters. This year, though, the 16-1 about Djokovic is worth a close look.

Superbowl 2013 Preview

The Super Bowl is the biggest annual event in American sport and, such is the increasing popularity of American football outside the land of Uncle Sam, the National Football League title decider attracts millions of international viewers.

Super Bowl XLVII – the National Football League uses Roman numerals to identify each edition of its championship game – will take place between American Football Conference winner Baltimore and National Football Conference winner San Francisco in New Orleans on Sunday 3 February 2013.

Both the Ravens and the 49ers boasts unblemished Super Bowl records – Baltimore is one from one having beaten New York’s Giants 34-7 in Super Bowl XXXV, while San Francisco is five from five having taken out Super Bowl XVI, Super Bowl XIX, Super Bowl XXIII, Super Bowl XXIV and Super Bowl XXIX – so one of the participants is going to blot its copybook.

National Football Conference representatives have won 25 of the previous 46 Super Bowls, including each of the last three, while the Steelers (six wins), the Cowboys (five wins) and the 49ers (five wins) are the most successful teams in the illustrious history of the major event.

Underdog Ravens should be favourites

Many Super Bowl XLVII betting markets have been open since Baltimore and San Francisco beat New England and Atlanta respectively to earn the right to fight for the Vince Lombardi Trophy at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

Some bookmakers opened up with Baltimore as the five-point Super Bowl XLVII underdog but that line is ancient history following a sustained assault by what are known in the betting business as sharps. The match is likely to start with the Ravens receiving around three and a half points.

That does not seem right. Baltimore is battle hardened and full of confidence after defeating Denver and New England in back-to-back road games, restricting the super-offensive Patriots to only one touchdown and just 13 points. At least New England quarterback Tom Brady had Gisele Bundchen’s beautiful shoulders to cry on after his shock loss.

It is difficult to line up the form of Baltimore and San Francisco but not impossible. Both the Ravens and the 49ers have played the Patriots on the road and the Giants at home this season and, on both counts, the Ravens come out on top – by eight points against the Patriots and, get this, by 42 points versus the Giants. Yes, one is using a small sample but it does suggest that the Super Bowl XLVII market is incorrect in favouring San Francisco over Baltimore.

Then there are the Ray Lewis and Harbaugh factors. Lewis is going to retire after Super Bowl XLVII and call time on a brilliant career that will surely see him inducted into the National Football League Hall of Fame at the first possible opportunity. Baltimore is determined to send out the 13-time Pro Bowl pick as a winner. The Lewis story has been a thread throughout the miraculous recent run of the Ravens.

Super Bowl XLVII has been tagged the Harbaugh Bowl because brother John and Jim are the head coaches of Baltimore and San Francisco. Advantage, Ravens. Jim says that he is not half the coach that his brother is. Take him at his word.

harbaugh bowl

This years Superbowl has been dubbed the Harbaugh Bowl

Flacco positioned for MVP Award

The highlight of any Super Bowl for many punters are the wide range of proposition bets that bookmakers frame to assist with their marketing. There are hundreds of Super Bowl XLVII exotics from which to choose, including the always extremely popular Most Valuable Player Award.

Lewis is bidding to become the sixth man to win the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award on multiple occasions and the first non-quarterback to achieve the feat. It really is a quarterback’s benefit, with 25 of the previous 46 Super Bowls having a quarterback as the man of the match.

If one fancies Baltimore to beat San Francisco in Super Bowl XLVII then Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco is the most obvious Most Valuable Player selection. With eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions, Flacco has a chance to tie or break three-time Super Bowl champion Joe Montana’s record for most touchdowns without throwing an interception during a single post season. Every other quarterback who has finished a post season throwing at least eight TDs with no interceptions has won not only the Vince Lombardi Trophy but also the Most Valuable Player Award. Flacco is trading at odds of around 3-1 to become the fourth consecutive quarterback winner of the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Award following on from Drew Brees in Super Bowl XLIV, Aaron Rodgers in Super Bowl XLV and Eli Manning in Super Bowl XLVI.

Tuck in to longest field goal prop

Perhaps the best of the Super Bowl XLVII proposition bets from a pure punting prospective is Baltimore to score the longest field goal at odds of around 8-11. Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has fluffed only three field goals this season, while his record from more than 50 yards is a perfect four from four. On the other hand, 49ers kicker David Akers has not even had a crack at a field goal measuring more than 40 yards during the play-offs. San Francisco officials are extremely worried about Akers and rightly so. Akers was just 9-19 from more than 40 yards during the regular season. Akers is a real liability.

There Will Be Goals in Bremen

Neither Bremen nor Hannover are the most fashionable of sides but they are even more entertaining than a Robin Williams stand-up set, so bet on there being goals galore in their German Bundesliga derby match at the Weserstadion.

Many professional football punters put a line through all local arguments but such are the astonishing statistics pertaining to Bremen and Hannover that even the most anti-derby gambler may be tempted to get involved.

The numbers are so incredible that one would have to go a very long way to find a more compelling case for backing over 2.5 goals and both teams to score in a game between sides competing in one of European football’s top leagues.

hannover  werder bremen

We expect plenty more of this in the next clash between these 2 teams

Bremen and Hannover have each played 19 German Bundesliga matches this season so, counting their September 2012 clash only once, they have participated in 37 exclusive games. A total of four elite German teams have not featured in a goalless match. Bremen and Hannover are two of them, with the others being leader Bayern and fourth-placed Frankfurt.

None of Bremen’s German Bundesliga matches this term has produced fewer than two goals so fans of Thomas Schaaf’s side have been entertained throughout the season. Goals in Bremen’s games have totalled two five times, three five times, four three times and five six times for a 3.53 mean.

And only one of Hannover’s German Bundesliga matches this term has produced fewer than two goals, with goals in its games totalling one once, two three times, three four times, four four times, five five times, six once and nine once for an average of 3.95, which puts it at the top of the chart.

Bremen and Hannover met in the capital of Germany’s state of Lower Saxony in the third round of the German Bundesliga season and it was an action-packed, five-goal thriller in which Hannover was 2-0 up inside 10 minutes but required a last-gasp Szabolcs Huszti goal to beat Bremen. Huszti, who scored two of Hannover’s three goals and set up the other one, found time to receive his marching orders before Deniz Aytekin blew the final whistle and the home team celebrated.

Understandably, bookmakers are not keen to lay certain bets on Friday’s match between Bremen and Hannover but even odds of around 4-7 about the sides combining for more than 2.5 goals are worth taking. Of the 37 German Bundesliga games in which Bremen and Hannover have taken part this term, 28 of them have gone over 2.5 goals. That is a percentage of 75.68, which is around 1-3 in fractional betting odds.

Both teams to score is another football betting staple and bookmakers are quoting that option at odds of around for Bremen versus Hannover. Both sides have scored in 15 of Bremen’s German Bundesliga matches this season and 14 of Hannover’s games. Counting September 2012’s AWD-Arena meeting once, that means 28 out of 37 again. One should be able to see the value. It should be blindingly obvious to anyone who understands even the most basic mathematics.

A lot of the time it makes sense to bet against the crowd. This is not one of those times because every known statistic supports betting on over 2.5 goals and both teams to score, plus bookmakers are doing their bit by offering odds that are generous in the circumstances. Their offers may be sufficient to put off punters who have not crunched the numbers but those gamblers who have done their homework appreciate that their offers should be even tighter.

Taking the analysis one step further to include all matches featuring either Bremen or Hannover this season, the over 2.5 goals strike rate is 38 out of 49 (77.55% per cent), while the both sides to score incidence is 39 out of 49 (79.59%). They are quite simply breathtaking statistics.

Bremen against Hannover is the opening game in the 20th round of this term’s German Bundesliga competition. The headline event is Sunday’s match between Leverkusen and Dortmund, the second- and third-placed teams. Bookmakers have chalked up odds that are disrespectful to Leverkusen given that it has yet to lose at home this season.