Spanish sides have dominated the UEFA Champions League in recent seasons and one thinks that dutching Real Madrid and Barcelona to win this term’s tournament is a decent bet.
The UEFA Champions League group stage will kick off on Tuesday 15 September and, because the competition is top heavy, one does not anticipate any major shocks in the round-robin phase. The UEFA Champions League may be the pinnacle of club football but the reality is that only a small group of teams is capable of winning it and, if anything, that group is getting smaller and smaller.
According to bookmakers, six sides have a higher than five per cent chances of winning the UEFA Champions League this season and they are, from favourite to sixth favourite, Barcelona, Bayern Munchen, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain. Seventh in line is Manchester United, which only goes to demonstrate how shallow the UEFA Champions League is because the Red Devils are ordinary.
One should go through those six teams in reverse order, starting with Paris Saint-Germain. Laurent Blanc’s side finds itself in the same UEFA Champions League group as Real Madrid, which puts it at greater risk of an early exit than had it avoided one of the really big guns in the draw. One expects that Paris Saint-Germain will accompany Real Madrid into the UEFA Champions League last 16 but PSG have not got past the quarter-finals in any of the last three terms and they have not strengthened as much as several other teams.
Manchester City is one of two UEFA Champions League group favourites which is trading at odds against to win its section. Manchester City’s UEFA Champions League record is even poorer than that of Paris Saint-Germain, never getting past the last 16 and bowing out in the group stage twice. That Manchester City’s English Premier League odds have been slashed since that tournament got under way has had more to do with the failing of its rivals than its performances.
It is probably going too far to label Chelsea as a club in crisis but it would be fair to say that the Blues are not travelling well. Chelsea has failed to keep a clean sheet in its five competitive matches this term and the Blues could do with a back-up striker in case Diego Costa’s poor old hamstrings play up as much as they did last season. Chelsea committed daylight robbery to win the UEFA Champions League four terms ago and one feels as though the Blues are not in a position to challenge for Europe’s top honour currently.
That leaves only Real Madrid, Bayern Munchen and Barcelona to discuss. Of the three, Bayern Munchen makes the least appeal. First, Bayern Munchen could not get the job done in last season’s UEFA Champions League when it could devote all of its post-Christmas energy to the tournament. One thinks that Dortmund will challenge Bayern Munchen for the German Bundesliga title this term, thereby making life much more difficult for Pep Guardiola’s side on the European stage. Second, Bayern Munchen has been humiliated at the business end of the UEFA Champions League in each of the last two seasons, losing 0-5 on aggregate to Real Madrid in 2014 and going down 3-5 on aggregate to Barcelona in 2015. And third, signing Douglas and Arturo Vidal did not address Bayern Munchen’s weakness, which is leaking goals at the highest level. Is Bayern Munchen capable of shutting out the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid? One has one’s doubts.
One rates Barcelona and Real Madrid as clearly the top two teams in the UEFA Champions League. The Spanish Primera Division does not have the strength in depth of the English Premier League but its elite sides are a cut above their equivalents in other divisions, not least because Barcelona and Real Madrid receive an unequal share of the broadcast media revenue. One would be amazed if this term’s UEFA Champions League final does not feature at least one of Barcelona and Real Madrid so one is quite happy to dutch them at odds of 4.00 (with Bet365 and Coral) and 6.50 (with Betfred and PaddyPower) respectively to generate a punt at odds of 2.48.
Tips Summary
Real Madrid or Barcelona to win Champions League
Starts 15th September
Dutched Odds: 2.48
