The English Football League play-offs kick off on Thursday with 12 teams competing for three spots in higher divisions, including one in the insanely rich English Premier League.
Brentford, Ipswich, Middlesbrough and Norwich are the four English Championship sides fighting to become next season’s 20th English Premier League team and one thinks that Boro represents the smartest punt at odds of 3.40 with Bet365.
Middlesbrough must knock out Brentford to qualify for the English Championship play-offs final and Boro ought to be full of confidence for their two-legged tie against the Bees. Middlesbrough beat Brentford 4-0 at the Riverside Stadium in September – it even managed to score a goal following Dean Whitehead’s dismissal – and Boro stung the Bees 1-0 at Griffin Park in January thanks to a penalty kick that Grant Leadbitter converted just before half time.
East Anglia foes Ipswich and Norwich will contest the other English Championship play-offs semi-final and, regardless of whether it is the Tractor Boys or the Canaries that reaches the promotion game, Middlesbrough will boast a head-to-head advantage should it make it through to the marquee match. In effect, Middlesbrough defeated Ipswich 4-3 on aggregate in the English Championship regular season and Boro thrashed Norwich 5-0 over their two games during the 46 rounds.
The clincher for backing Middlesbrough is this: the rivalry between Ipswich and Norwich is such that the Tractor Boys and the Canaries will feel like they have played two of the biggest matches of their lives before one of them runs out at Wembley Stadium for a game that is billed as the most lucrative one-off clash in football. There has to be a good chance that the East Anglia team that makes it through to the English Championship play-offs final will be burnt out.
One’s starting point with the English League One play-offs featuring Chesterfield, Preston, Sheffield United and Swindon is to oppose North End even though head-to-head records favour them over the Spireites in their semi-final and, also, shy away from supporting the Blades.
Preston choked in the final round of English League One and it has a bad habit of fluffing its lines in big matches, not least because North End fans believe that their side has a right to be playing higher up the English pyramid than the third level. Preston will have to play well in three big games to accompany Bristol City and Milton Keynes into the English Championship and one has them as a false favourite.
Sheffield United is similar to Preston in that it will play under intense pressure because of supporter expectation so one thinks that Swindon, which boasts a head-to-head edge over the Blades, constitutes the best English League One play-offs bet at odds of 4.00 with several bookmakers, including Betfred, PaddyPower and Winner.
One is not alarmed about Swindon’s run of five English League One matches without a win because the Robins have been taking it easy in recent weeks because they had no chance of either going up automatically or missing out on the play-offs. Swindon manager Mark Cooper will be able to call upon all his team’s key players, including AFC Asian Cup player of the tournament Massimo Luongo, for Thursday’s English League One play-offs semi-final first leg against Sheffield United at Bramall Lane and the Robins were the second best side in the division for most of the season.
Plymouth, Southend, Stevenage and Wycombe are the English League Two play-offs participants and one’s inclination is to avoid the Shrimpers and the Chairboys because they must be gutted to have missed out on one of the three automatic promotion berths. Southend would have finished third had it beaten 11th-placed Morecambe in the final round, while Wycombe was a fixture in the top three for most of the season only to end up missing out by two points.
One rates Plymouth, which is available at odds of 4.00 with many bookmakers, including WilliamHill, as the English League Two play-offs value. Plymouth’s positives include positive head-to-head records versus Southend and Wycombe and momentum having beating desperate Tranmere and title-chasing Shrewsbury to qualify for the post season at the expense of ambitious Luton.
Tips Summary
Middlesbrough to win Championship Play-Off
8th May 19:45 GMT
Odds: 3.40
Where to Bet: Bet365
Swindon to win League One Play-Off
7th May 19:45 GMT
Odds: 4.00
Where to Bet: Betfred, PaddyPower, Winner
Plymouth to win League Two Play-Off
9th May 19:45 GMT
Odds: 4.00
Where to Bet: WilliamHill
