One has many golden rules when it comes to betting and one of them is look to oppose teams with a history of choking whenever they find themselves in a pressurised environment.
The English League One play-offs final at Wembley Stadium is a pressurised environment given the stage on which it takes place and the prize that is up for grabs – sides have played 48 divisional matches to get within one game of promotion to the English Championship. That the situation in which Preston and Swindon will find themselves on Sunday.
Most of the English League One play-offs final pressure will be on Preston, of that one is sure. First, Preston qualified for the English League One play-offs as the top seed, ending up 10 points clear of fourth-placed Swindon. Traditionalists will say that Preston deserves to be elevated to the English Championship because it was English League One’s third best team at the conclusion of the regular season. That is a nice thing to say but all that it does is put pressure on Preston to secure what many people think should be theirs already.
Second, Preston fans are a demanding bunch by English League One standards. Sure, it must be terrific playing in front of thousands of Preston supporters when things are going great but it must be hellish trying to satisfy those fans when the world is going to hell in a handbasket. Preston will have to perform under enormous pressure in the English League One play-offs final and, on the evidence of this season’s big matches, North End have a tendency to wilt under the heat. Preston flopped against Walsall in the English Johnstone’s Paint Trophy final qualifier and North End failed when they needed to beat Colchester on the last day of the English League One regular season to obtain automatic promotion.
Third, Preston’s 3-0 English League One home victory over Swindon last month will only serve to raise expectations of North End romping to Wembley Stadium glory. But what most people, including thousands of Preston fans, will fail to acknowledge is that North End took that English League One game extremely seriously, whereas Swindon rested several of its key players because the match meant relatively little to it because of its position on the ladder – the Robins spent the last few rounds waiting for the play-offs because they could not go up automatically or miss out on the top six.
Fourth, Preston lost 0-1 at Swindon in their English League One clash that saw both sides field something close to their strongest line-ups. Swindon enjoyed 66 per cent possession and secured three English League One points thanks to a late Andy Williams goal. AFC Asian Cup player of the tournament, Massimo Luongo, and another midfielder who shone during that event in Australia, Yaser Kasim, turned out for Swindon that day and one expects that they will feature on Sunday.
Finally, Preston may not be as well suited to the Wembley Stadium pitch as Swindon. Preston’s direct style has worked for it throughout the English League One competition but it is Swindon that has caught the eye of neutral observers who like sexy football. The Wembley Stadium surface should be the best on which Swindon has played this season and that, along with one’s other points, is why the Robins are the value bet to win the English League One play-offs final.
Swindon is trading at odds of 2.30 with Boylesports and SkyBet to win the English League One play-offs final by any means, while the Robins are available at odds of 3.60 with Boylesports to beat Preston at the end of normal time. Both options are attractive given Preston’s propensity to choke.
Tips Summary
Swindon to win the play-off versus Preston / win in 90 minutes
24th May 17:30 GMT
Odds: 2.30 / 3.60
Where to Bet: Boylesports, SkyBet
